By Kabelo Mollo
Last week Wednesday South Africa took to the polls. This was primed as the most important elections since 1994.
As usual, the ANC garnered the highest number of votes. However, unusually, this was not enough for the ANC to have a parliamentary majority, nor form a government. The once mighty liberation movement had hit that stumbling block that all liberators seem to hit after 20/25 years.
The declining support of Ramaphosa’s “Khongolose” has been evident for a while beginning with the local elections and spilling over to social (and mainstream) media. Indeed, this quasi revolution has been televised.
The smart money was on the ANC dipping under 50%, to around 48/49. I made a prediction just before the elections that they’ll maintain their majority by a hair’s breadth with 51/52% of the vote.
This was owing to the efficiency of their ground campaign and the mobilization of past leaders most notably Thabo Mbeki. Zizi, for all his quirks is still greatly admired by vast swathes of the South African populace. That was evident in the large numbers who pitched up in Soweto to see his ground campaign.
What I hadn’t factored in was the impact of another former ANC president, Jacob Zuma, and his MK party. I’m still shocked they have been allowed to run under that name, but far more shocking has been their growth trajectory, usurping 14% of the vote and being the third largest party in many provinces. It was always likely they’d be a player in KZN where Zuma hails from, but their strength in places like Mpumalanga and the Northern Cape has been impressive.
The DA have managed to hold on to their 20-odd per cent. In the seismic activity that occurred; that in itself is laudable. Their rhetoric has appealed to the centre right voter and I suppose they have managed to convince the “non-traditional” voter that they can govern effectively and efficiently. I maintain that’s more propaganda than reality because I’ve been to Cape Town and have seen the blatant inequality that persists almost always along racial lines, but that’s a story for another day.
My shock has come from the decline of the EFF. In the last two general elections they have been the only party to grow. In 2019 Malema et al secured one million plus voters and were trending upwards even in between the election cycle. Their Pan Africanism and support of African unity seems to have cost them. In a South Africa grappling with “Zama Zamas” and negative sentiments borne of xenophobia the popular vote decided not to support strengthening continental agency. There is an exceptionalism that pervades sections of South African society leading many among them to believe the superiority of the “Rainbow nation”. I suppose being the largest economy on the continent will do that. If the free trade agreement is going to work, we’re going to need to work very hard to convince all Africans that indeed in unity there is strength. The colonial borders will have to be relegated to the annals of history.
Meanwhile, ActionSA under Herman Mashaba, Rise Mzansi of Songezo Zibi and Musi Maimane’s BOSA all fared as expected garnering 1 & 2% of the vote. The Patriotic Alliance of Gayton McKenzie and Kenny Kunene which ran heavily on expulsion of illegal immigrants captured around 2%. Again talking to the electorate’s desperation to rid themselves of foreign nationals. I dare say, especially those that look like them.
It is time for coalition talks and a myriad of permutations are being bandied about. The markets are being talked up, while policy and ideological grounding seems to be taking a back seat. The big question is what ANC will do with its majority. Will they opt for a grand coalition with Steenhuisens DA or a rekindling three-party alliance with the EFF and MK? Will they sit in the opposition benches and watch a multi-party pact led by the DA try to move South Africa forward?
It’s all very intriguing. What many commentators and analysts should be disabused of is the notion that the ANC accepting the results is something noteworthy. The continent has seen many peaceful transitions of power, especially in recent times. Lesotho and Zambia have done it effortlessly while recently Senegal managed it to.
We sit with bated breath anticipating the outcome of the coalition talks and wish South Africa all the best as they traverse what can only be called a minefield of coalition politics.
Apologies for the brief unannounced hiatus, but “The Big Thoughts” is back…
